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☆ If this is a stock market correction, here's how history says it will unfold
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The recent retreat in the stock market has made many worried about a deeper correction. Lingering inflation concerns, rising Treasury yields and a shifting outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate policy prompted a market pullback, with the S & P 500 almost 4% off its 52-week high as of Tuesday. A correction is defined as a 10% decline in one of the major U.S. stock indexes, typically the S & P 500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average, from a recent 52-week high close. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 More to go? The heightened geopolitical risk led U.K. investment bank Liberum Capital to call for oil to surge to $100 and a stock market correction as big as 10%.

Persons: Sam Stovall, it's, Stovall, Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, Marko Kolanovic Organizations: Federal Reserve, CFRA Research, Dow Jones Locations: U.S

☆ British investment bank says buy defense stocks, brace for $100 oil and 10% stock market correction
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices were slightly lower Monday as Israel, aided by the U.S., fended off Iran's aerial barrage. The investment bank believes aerospace and defense stocks could outperform in the short run in light of growing geopolitical risks. The biggest ETF in the industry is the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) , with about $5 billion in assets under management. Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF (PPA ) and SPDR S & P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR) are two other popular offerings. To be sure, Liberum thinks the stock market could quickly reverse any losses as soon as the tensions in the Middle East ease.

Persons: Israel retaliating, Liberum, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Liberum, U.S ., Federal Reserve, West Texas Intermediate, May, U.S . Aerospace & Defense ETF, ITA, Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF, P Aerospace & Defense ETF Locations: Iran, Israel, Damascus, Syria, U.S

☆ Low Platinum Prices Show How Banking on Miners Could Threaten the Energy Transition
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Yusuf Khan | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +5 min

Platinum is used to make the electrolyzers that produce hydrogen and the sharp down cycle in South Africa’s platinum mining sector demonstrates the risk that low prices and lack of investment could slow the energy transition. Prices for other commodities have also fallen, while miners have been complaining of rising costs and seem to be limiting their capital expenditures. Photo: michele spatari/Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesFor the mining sector, cyclical returns are nothing new. Ray said many South African PGM miners are now selling their output at close to the cost of production, eating away at profitability. “To the extent that PGM prices stay at current levels, I would not be surprised to see more supply-side reaction,” Ray said.

Persons: Waldo Swiegers, ”, Tom Price, michele spatari, We’ve, ” Emma Townshend, ” Townshend, Raj Ray, Ray, ” Ray, ” Implats’s Townshend, Implats, Yusuf Khan Organizations: Bloomberg, Liberum, Agence France, PGM, Times, Business, BMO Capital Markets, Metals Locations: Sibanye, Africa, Johannesburg, Stillwater, South, South Africa, Marikana, U.S, China, Europe, Implats

☆ Apollo may get noodle LBO thrown back in its face
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Aimee Donnellan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The private equity firm has offered to buy Wagamama owner Restaurant Group (RTN.L) for 701 million pounds including debt. Restaurant Group is an obvious takeover target. And Restaurant Group itself reckons it can crank up its EBITDA margin by as much as 3.5 percentage points by 2026. Apollo could comfortably double its money, assuming it used debt of around 300 million pounds to buy the business, or 3 times 2024 EBITDA. The deal is being undertaken by a special purpose vehicle indirectly owned by Apollo Funds, managed by affiliates of Apollo Global Management.

Persons: Andy Hornby, Frankie, Jefferies, John Wood, Neil Unmack, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Restaurant, Irenic Capital, Oasis Management, Apollo Group, Restaurant Group, Apollo Funds, Apollo Global Management, Thomson Locations: Britain

Thermal coal insurance rates rose more than 20% last year, it said, above the 7.3% rise in the benchmark Marsh Global Insurance Market Index. Insurance companies can be active in both primary insurance and reinsurance and have differing commitments on ESG for different parts of their business. "Establishing a mutual fund for the coal industry is a matter for the coal industry," a spokesperson for the Australian Department of Treasury said. "I'm talking about going beyond your normal UK-based markets and looking into Asia for funders and insurance cover," she added. Coal prices hit record highs in September last year as European countries scrambled to replace Russian gas, sending coal miners' profits soaring.

Persons: Philip Mostert, Seriti, Doug Gain, Gain, Ben Davis, Willis Towers Watson, Thungela, China's, Russia's, Switzerland's Chubb, Chubb, Russia's SOGAZ, Peter Bosshard, Nombasa Tsengwa, Tsengwa, Exxaro, Clara Denina, Sarah McFarlane, Nelson Banya, Elaine Hardcastle, Daniel Flynn Organizations: REUTERS, Seriti, Thungela Resources, International Energy Agency, Reuters, Marsh Global Insurance, Whitehaven Coal, Whitehaven, Allianz, Swiss, Germany's Allianz, Insuramore, Australian Department of Treasury, South, Thomson Locations: American, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa, South, Ukraine, Whitehaven, Munich, Australia, Asia, Europe

☆ Thyssenkrupp hydrogen IPO calls for leap of faith
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( Pamela Barbaglia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Once known as the Swiss army knife of climate change for its myriad potential applications in heating, heavy industry and vehicles, green hydrogen has fallen to earth. High fossil fuel prices have also made green hydrogen more affordable relative to other types made from gas. Yet green hydrogen is mostly confined to large-scale industrial usages like steel and ammonia manufacturing. López Borrego will do well to get his IPO away at 3 billion euros without a tangible discount. Switching an average European steel site to green hydrogen could cost 7 billion euros, according to a Hydrogen Europe report.

Persons: Miguel Ángel López Borrego, Thyssenkrupp, DNR.MI, Nucera, López Borrego, Nora, George Hay, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, Nucera, Industrie, Energy, ITM, Mingyang Smart Energy, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thyssenkrupp, European, Council, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Dortmund, U.S, Swiss, Saudi

☆ WE Soda to sell shares in rare London IPO
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, May 31 (Reuters) - WE Soda, the world's largest producer of natural soda ash, said on Wednesday it planned to list shares on the London stock exchange, in a boost for Britain's flagging initial public offering (IPO) market. The UK-based company, which produces soda ash for a variety of uses including glass manufacturing, is considering applying for admission to trade on the premium segment of the London Stock Exchange (LSE). Though proceeds raised in London IPOs fell 90% last year, according to research by consultancy EY, the British capital has seen some activity in recent months. Earlier in May, Admiral Acquisition (ADMR.L), a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) founded by veteran dealmaker Martin E. Franklin, raised $550 million in a London flotation. In April, Melrose Industries (MRON.L) listed the former automotive division of British engineer GKN under the name Dowlais (DWL.L) on the LSE.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, London IPOs, EY, dealmaker Martin E, Franklin, GKN, Pablo Mayo, Jason Neely, Mark Potter Organizations: London Stock Exchange, LSE, Ciner, Press, JPMorgan, BNP, Deutsche Bank, Liberum, European Union, Melrose Industries, Thomson Locations: London, Cambridge

Disruptions may hit mine output, leading analysts to trim a forecast surplus for this year to 133,000 tonnes from 165,000 tonnes of oversupply in the previous poll. Analysts have marked up their estimates for an aluminium market surplus this year to 113,500 tonnes from 80,535 tonnes forecast in January. "Due to relentless mined nickel supply growth in Indonesia, and its broad-based nickel-bearing exports, we remain longer-term bears on the global nickel price," said Tom Price at Liberum. Analysts expect LME cash nickel prices to average $22,273 a tonne in the third quarter, down 11% from current levels. They also expect the global nickel market to see a surplus of 112,000 tonnes this year and an oversupply of 89,500 tonnes in 2024.

☆ ASOS identifies cost savings after Christmas sales slide
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Sarah Young | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

ASOS said sales in its biggest market of Britain fell 8% in the period, hurt by Christmas delivery problems and a tough comparison against last year when the pandemic favoured online shops. Liberum analysts called recent trading weak, adding there had been "progress on new strategy but we remain wary." Britain is in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis and ASOS blamed weak consumer sentiment for its UK sales fall but many other retailers, such as clothes chain Next (NXT.L), have managed to grow sales over Christmas, showing that ASOS is more challenged than others. Data from IMRG showed that online retail sales in the UK fell for the first time ever last year, down 10.5% year-on-year. In Europe, ASOS did better, growing sales more than 6% in the period.

☆ Analysis: UK housebuilders may cut dividends as surging rates deter buyers
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Ajose Koilparambil | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The big, listed UK housebuilders have paid dividends worth 2.2 billion pounds ($2.6 billion) for their respective last financial years. Potential cuts in dividends would weigh down on shares of housebuilders, after the sector index (.FTNMX402020) slumped more than 44% in 2022. Among the FTSE 100 builders, analysts are now forecasting dividend cuts from many firms, particularly those whose payouts are linked to earnings growth. High-end housebuilder Berkeley (BKGH.L) stuck to its cash-return plans, but cut its earnings estimates for the 2024 and 2025 fiscal years. Barratt, Persimmon and Berkeley have said they would be more cautious with land purchases, in a bid to reduce outgoings as falling property prices squeeze margins.

☆ Shares of this under-the-radar global miner are set to rally 50%, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Shares in Sylvania Platinum , a little-known London-listed miner, are set to rise by 50%, according to Ben Davis, mining analyst at Liberum Capital. The company, which extracts metals such as platinum, palladium, and chrome, also offers an 8% dividend yield. Shares in the company were trading around £1 ($1.21) Friday, but Davis sees them hitting £1.50 in 12 months. Sylvania Platinum is also favored by Neil Shah, director at the investment research group Edison Group. The metals the company extracts are bought by both investors and industrial customers, which means their prices are more resilient than other commodities during economic downturns.

☆ Ryanair hails 'very strong' recovery with record summer profit
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Conor Humphries | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Irish airline, Europe's largest by passenger numbers, earned 1.371 billion euros ($1.36 billion) in the six months to the end of September, the first half of its financial year. While that was just short of a forecast of 1.385 billion in a company poll of analysts, it was well ahead of its previous first-half record of 1.29 billion euros in 2017. "We expect these strong fundamentals will continue to underpin robust traffic and average fare growth for the next 18-months at least," he said. Profit and traffic are poised for "very strong growth" until 2025 assuming oil prices remain relatively stable, he added in a video presentation. However, while the airline is planning for the deliver of 51 737 MAX aircraft by next summer, O'Leary said he was concerned Boeing might fall short.

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